Measuring Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions

1. Introduction 7

1.1. Power sector and GHG emissions 7
1.2. Polish nuclear power plant program 9
1.3. Motivation 12

2. Energy policy and GHG emissions 17
2.1. Energy mix issues 17
2.2. Analytical review of official strategic documents 24
2.2.1. Analysis of The Chancellery of the Prime Minister 25
2.2.2. Scenarios of the Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies 30
2.2.3. The assumptions of the Ministry of Energy 32
2.2.4. Forecasts of the Energy Market Agency 33
2.2.5. Deloitte report for the Ministry of Economy 35
2.2.6. Scenario analysis “Coal in the Polish energy sector by 2050” 37
2.3. Differences and similarities in the results of studies and their sources 42
2.4. Recommended approach and recent developments 46

3. Estimates of costs of nuclear energy 51
3.1. Determinants of lifetime projection cost 51
3.1.1. Capital costs 51
3.1.2. Operating costs 55
3.1.3. Other costs 57
3.2. Cost estimation model and assumptions 59
3.3. Results 65
3.4. Conclusion 69

4. Input-output methods for power system analyses 71
4.1. Data for modelling 71
4.2. Classical models of input-output analysis 74
4.2.1. Basic models 74
4.2.2. Applications of fundamental models 79
4.3. Multipliers of IOA 83
4.4. Forecasting of technical coefficients 86
4.5. Including a new activity 88
4.6. Modelling energy and emissions 91
4.6.1. General approach 92
4.6.2. Equations of air pollution from fuel combustion 95

5. IAEA Empower model and its properties 99
5.1. IAEA models for energy planning 99
5.2. Theoretical model 101
5.3. Implementation of the model for Poland 105
5.3.1. Data collection and adjustment 105
5.3.2. Implementation and launch of the model 106
5.4. Exploring properties of the model 109
5.4.1. Scenarios 109
5.4.2. Analysis of the results 118

6. Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions in Poland 127
6.1. Empower.pl.cc 127
6.2. Simulation Assumptions 128
6.2.1. Economy 128
6.2.2. Nuclear program costs 130
6.2.3. Demand for electricity and power generation mix 133
6.3. Scenarios and results 145
6.3.1. Change of power structure and power mix 146
6.3.2. Changes in energy efficiency 148
6.4. Simulation results 149

7. Conclusions and recommendations 159

References 163
Appendix 167
List of Figures 175
List of Tables 177